Ensemble rainfall forecasting with numerical weather prediction and radar‐based nowcasting models     

Shan He  Srivatsan V. Raghavan  Ngoc Son Nguyen  Shie‐Yui Liong 《水文研究》2013,27(11):1560-1571

The overall objective of this study is to improve the forecasting accuracy of the precipitation in the Singapore region by means of both rainfall forecasting and nowcasting. Numerical Weather Predication (NWP) and radar‐based rainfall nowcasting are two important sources for quantitative precipitation forecast. In this paper, an attempt to combine rainfall prediction from a high‐resolution mesoscale weather model and a radar‐based rainfall model was performed. Two rainfall forecasting methods were selected and examined: (i) the weather research and forecasting model (WRF); and (ii) a translation model (TM). The WRF model, at a high spatial resolution, was run over the domain of interest using the Global Forecast System data as initializing fields. Some heavy rainfall events were selected from data record and used to test the forecast capability of WRF and TM. Results obtained from TM and WRF were then combined together to form an ensemble rainfall forecasting model, by assigning weights of 0.7 and 0.3 weights to TM and WRF, respectively. This paper presented results from WRF and TM, and the resulting ensemble rainfall forecasting; comparisons with station data were conducted as well. It was shown that results from WRF are very useful as advisory of anticipated heavy rainfall events, whereas those from TM, which used information of rain cells already appearing on the radar screen, were more accurate for rainfall nowcasting as expected. The ensemble rainfall forecasting compares reasonably well with the station observation data. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Estimation of the Roll Hydrodynamic Moment Model of a Ship by Using the System Identification Method and the Free Running Model Test     

Hyeon Kyu Yoon Nam Sun Son Gyeong Joong Lee 《Oceanic Engineering, IEEE Journal of》2007,32(4):798-806

When a fast container ship or a naval vessel turns, accompanying roll motions occur. This roll effect must be considered in the horizontal equations of the motion of the ship to predict the maneuverability of the ship properly. In this paper, a new method for determining a model structure of the hydrodynamic roll moment acting on a ship and for estimating the hydrodynamic coefficients is proposed. The method utilizes a system identification technique with the data from sea trial tests or from free running model (FRM) tests. To obtain motion data that is applied to the proposed algorithm, an FRM of a large container ship was developed. Using this model ship, standard maneuvering tests were carried out on a small body of water out of doors. A hydrodynamic roll moment model was constructed utilizing the data from turning circle tests and a 20-20 zig-zag test. This was then confirmed through a 10-10 zig-zag test. It was concluded that a model structure of the hydrodynamic roll moment model could be established without difficulty through a system identification method and FRM tests.  相似文献   

Impacts of Coagulation Pretreatment on MF Filtration and a Comparative Study of Different Membrane Module Types     

LIU Oi-feng Kim Seung-hyun Yun Jong-sup Moon Seong-yong 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2006,5(4):295-299

Changes in the regulatory requirements and the forthcoming Disinfectant/Disinfection By-Products （D/DBP） Rule will require that drinking water treatment facilities be operated to achieve maximum removals of particles and disinfectant tolerant microorganisms as well as natural organic matter （NOM）. For drinking water production, the use of membrane filtration processes such as microfiltration and ultrafiltration （MF/UF） alone to satisfy the turbidity, particle and microorganism removal a requirement of the surface water treatment regulation （SWTR） is not enough. MF/UF treatment processes can achieve only nominal （10 percent） removal of disinfection by-products （DBP） precursors （James, et al., 1995）. On the other hand, too fast fouling can make the filtration processes more difficult to carry on. To solve these problems, many authors have been interested in installing coagulation pretreatment before membrane filtration to improve membrane performance. However, previous studies reported conflicting results. Some supported the effectiveness of coagulation pretreatment, while others contended that coagulation aggravated membrane performance. This research aims to identify the effects of coagulation pretreatment on membrane filtration through a pilot study using PVDF membrane in combination with analyzing the rationale of coagulation. Another objective of this research was to evaluate the different impacts on membrane performance of using different membrane modules （the submerged module and pressured module）. The results showed that coagulation pretreatment greatly improved the membrane performance, extending the filtration time as well as reducing the permeated organic level, and that the submerged module is much more efficient than the pressured module.  相似文献   

Short-term periodicities in interplanetary,geomagnetic and solar phenomena during solar cycle 24     

Partha Chowdhury  D. P. Choudhary  S. Gosain  Y.-J. Moon 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2015,356(1):7-18

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Geography and global health     

Brown T  Moon G 《The Geographical journal》2012,178(1):13-17

In the wake of the report of the World Health Organisation's Commission on the Social Determinants of Health, Closing the gap in a generation (Marmot 2008), this invited commentary considers the scope for geographical research on global health. We reflect on current work and note future possibilities, particularly those that take a critical perspective on the interplay of globalisation, security and health.  相似文献   

The influences of interannual stratification variability and wind stress forcing on ENSO before and after the 1976 climate shift     

Yoon-Kyoung Lee  Sang-Wook Yeh  Boris Dewitte  Byung-Kwon Moon  Jong-Ghap Jhun 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,107(3-4):623-631

In order to understand the change in oceanic variability associated with the climate shift of the mid-1970s, we analyze the contribution of momentum forcing to the leading baroclinic modes over the tropical Pacific using Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA, version 2.0.2) for the period of 1958–1997. Specifically, we look at the statistical relationship between the wind projection coefficients and climate indices and attempt to provide a physical explanation for the observed changes. It is found that the wind stress projection coefficients according to the oceanic baroclinic modes are different in terms of their magnitude and phase in the tropical Pacific, reflecting a specific forcing associated with each mode before and after the 1976 climate shift. Compared to that before the 1970s, the first baroclinic mode is had a greater effect on the interannual sea surface temperature due to equatorial wave dynamics, and there was an increased delayed response of the second baroclinic mode variability to the interannual atmospheric forcing after the late 1970s. This reflects changes in ENSO feedback processes associated with the climate shift. Our analysis further indicates that, after the late 1970s, there was a decrease in the wind stress forcing projecting onto the Ekman layer, which is associated with increased mixed-layer depth. This result suggests that the changes in the ENSO properties before and after the late 1970s are largely associated with the changes in the way in which the wind stress forcing is dynamically projected onto the surface layer of the tropical Pacific Ocean over interannual timescales.  相似文献   

Future climate change scenarios over Korea using a multi-nested downscaling system: A pilot study   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Song-You Hong  Nan-Kyoung Moon  Kyo-Sun Sunny Lim  Jong-Won Kim 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2010,46(4):425-435

This study examines a scenario of future summer climate change for the Korean peninsula using a multi-nested regional climate system. The global-scale scenario from the ECHAM5, which has a 200 km grid, was downscaled to a 50 km grid over Asia using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Spectral Model (RSM). This allowed us to obtain large-scale forcing information for a one-way, double-nested Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model that consists of a 12 km grid over Korea and a 3 km grid near Seoul. As a pilot study prior to the multi-year simulation work the years 1995 and 2055 were selected for the present and future summers. This RSM-WRF multi-nested downscaling system was evaluated by examining a downscaled climatology in 1995 with the largescale forcing from the NCEP/Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis. The changes in monsoonal flows over East Asia and the associated precipitation change scenario over Korea are highlighted. It is found that the RSM-WRF system is capable of reproducing large-scale features associated with the East-Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and its associated hydro-climate when it is nested by the NCEP/DOE reanalysis. The ECHAM5-based downscaled climate for the present (1995) summer is found to suffer from a weakening of the low-level jet and sub-tropical high when compared the reanalysis-based climate. Predicted changes in summer monsoon circulations between 1995 and 2055 include a strengthened subtropical high and an intensified mid-level trough. The resulting projected summer precipitation is doubled over much of South Korea, accompanied by a pronounced surface warming with a maximum of about 2 K. It is suggested that downscaling strategy of this study, with its cloud-resolving scale, makes it suitable for providing high-resolution meteorological data with which to derive hydrology or air pollution models.  相似文献   

The kinematics of the Seyfert 2 galaxy NGC 5728 circumnuclear region     

D.-H. Son  S. Hyung  P. Ferruit  E. Pécontal  W.-B. Lee 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,395(2):692-718

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Model-based remote sensing algorithms for particulate organic carbon (POC) in the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico     

Young Baek Son  Wilford D. Gardner  Alexey V. Mishonov  Mary Jo Richardson 《Journal of Earth System Science》2009,118(1):1-10

Hydrographic data, including particulate organic carbon (POC) from the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico (NEGOM) study, were combined with remotely-sensed SeaWiFS data to estimate POC concentration using principal component analysis (PCA). The spectral radiance was extracted at each NEGOM station, digitized, and averaged. The mean value and spurious trends were removed from each spectrum. De-trended data included six wavelengths at 58 stations. The correlation between the weighting factors of the first six eigenvectors and POC concentration were applied using multiple linear regression. PCA algorithms based on the first three, four, and five modes accounted for 90, 95, and 98% of total variance and yielded significant correlations with POC with R ² = 0.89, 0.92, and 0.93. These full waveband approaches provided robust estimates of POC in various water types. Three different analyses (root mean square error, mean ratio and standard deviation) showed similar error estimates, and suggest that spectral variations in the modes defined by just the first four characteristic vectors are closely correlated with POC concentration, resulting in only negligible loss of spectral information from additional modes. The use of POC algorithms greatly increases the spatial and temporal resolution for interpreting POC cycling and can be extrapolated throughout and perhaps beyond the area of shipboard sampling.  相似文献   

Realistic survey simulations for kilometer class near Earth objects     

Hong-Kyu Moon  Yong-Ik Byun  Sean N. Raymond 《Icarus》2008,193(1):53-73

We present a new Near Earth Object (NEO) survey simulator which incorporates the four-dimensional population model of 4668 NEOs [Bottke, W.F., Morbidelli, A., Jedicke, R., Petit, J.-M., Levison, H.F., Michel, P., Metcalfe, T.S., 2002. Icarus 156, 399-433] and the observing strategies of most asteroid search programs. With the recent expansion of survey capabilities, previous simulators focused on a specific survey facility are no longer useful in predicting the future detection rates. Our simulation is a superposition of simplified search patterns adopted by all major wide-field surveys in operation in both hemispheres. We defined five different simulation periods to follow the evolution of survey efficiencies reflecting changes in either search volume as a result of upgrades of telescopes and instruments or in observing schedules. The simulator makes remarkably good reproductions of actual survey results as of December 2005, not only the total number of detections but also (a,e,i,H) (‘H’ means absolute magnitude of an asteroid) distributions. An extended experiment provides excellent predictions for discovery statistics of NEOs (H<18) reported to the Minor Planet Center in 2006. These support that our simulator is a plausible approximation of real surveys. We further confirm that, with the Bottke et al. [Bottke, W.F., Morbidelli, A., Jedicke, R., Petit, J.-M., Levison, H.F., Michel, P., Metcalfe, T.S., 2002. Icarus 156, 399-433] population model and present survey capability, the 90% completeness level of kilometer-sized NEOs will be achieved by 2010 or 2011. However, about 8% of the kilometer-sized or larger NEOs would remain undetected even after 10-year operation (2007-2016) of all current NEO survey facilities. They are apparently faint, with orbits characterized by large semimajor axis and higher eccentricity; these “hardest-to-find” objects tend to elude the search volume of existing NEO survey facilities. Our simulation suggests that 15% of undetectable objects are Atens and Inner Earth Objects. Because of their orbital characteristics, they will remain within ±45° from the Sun, thus cannot be discovered in the forthcoming decade if our effort is limited to current ground-based telescopes.  相似文献